Socio-economics characteristics and spatial persistence of homicides in Colombia, 2000-2010

  • Luis Eduardo Sandoval


This paper studies the spatial effects of demographic changes, education conditions
and conflict situation on the spatial persistence in the municipal homicide
rate in Colombia, as a result of shock increases in the displaced population and
local residents between 15-29 years old, the education coverage, and the conflict
actions. In order to do this, a temporal analysis of homicides rate during 2000-
2010 is undertaken through the inclusion of temporal dynamic characteristics
in a spatial autoregressive model, a spatial weights matrix was constructed that
was based on the distance travelled between near-by municipalities and the
departmental capital cities which were defined as centroids, which standardizes
the municipal relationship that affects the demographic dynamics and social
connectivity of the last decade that affects homicides and their temporal persistence.
The results show that in some departments of the country there is spatial
agglomeration in homicide rates in nearby municipalities but the spatial shock
is low and disappears in time. Population changes due to forced displacement
flows, greater density of young population and low coverage in secondary
education affect the diffusion and concentration of homicides in Colombia.
Keywords Homicides, spatial persistence, demographic dynamic
How to Cite
Sandoval, L. (2018). Socio-economics characteristics and spatial persistence of homicides in Colombia, 2000-2010. Estudios de Economía, 45(1), 51-77. Retrieved from