Economic indicators for automobile claim frequencies


  • Eva Boj Universidad de Barcelona
  • Anna Castañer Universidad de Barcelona
  • M. Mercè Claramunt Universidad de Barcelona
  • Teresa Costa Universidad de Barcelona
  • Oriol Roch Universidad de Barcelona


This article examines the relationship between observed claim frequencies in the automobile insurance line and the evolution of selected economic magnitudes. From a variety of economic variables, we aim to identify the main factors affecting claim frequencies, while controlling for other legislative and demographic factors. Through a dynamic regression model, the analysis is conducted for three different categories of vehicles and for a variety of coverages. A comprehensive dataset from the main Spanish insurance companies is used to calibrate the model. The evidence might assist companies to improve ratemaking.


Categories of vehicles, dynamic regression, external predictors, motor insurance, time series