The impact of exchange rate uncertainty on exports: a panel VAR analysis

  • Leonel Muinelo-Gallo Instituto de Economía, Universidad de la República, Uruguay.
  • Ronald Miranda Lescano Instituto de Economía, Universidad de la República, Uruguay.
  • Gabriela Mordecki Instituto de Economía, Universidad de la República, Uruguay.

Abstract

In this paper we analyze the impact of exchange rate uncertainty on export flows among a panel of 27 countries throughout the 1994/01-2014/12 period. In order to do this, we apply a panel vector autoregressive model approach. By dividing the panel into two subgroups that involve manufacturing-exporting and commodity-exporting economies, we observe a different effect of exchange rate uncertainty on exports. This has a negative impact in manufacturing-exporting countries, but does not affect commodity exporting countries. This result appears to be explained by countries’ economics characteristics, involving the flexibility or rigidities of the export adjustment arising exchange rate uncertainty.
Keywords Exchange rate uncertainty, exports, panel vector autoregressive, manufacture-exporting economies, commodity-exporting economies.
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How to Cite
Muinelo-Gallo, L., Miranda Lescano, R., & Mordecki, G. (2020). The impact of exchange rate uncertainty on exports: a panel VAR analysis. Estudios de Economía, 47(2), pp. 157-192. Retrieved from https://estudiosdeeconomia.uchile.cl/index.php/EDE/article/view/59172/62647
Section
Articles
Published
2020-10-21