Nota técnica 1: Transmisión eléctrica y la "ley corta": una nota sobre riesgo y la tasa de descuento "
Resumo
This paper studies the determinant of the appropriate rate to fix transmission
tolls. I develop a simple model that allows to decompose it in the sum of the
risk-free rate and a risk premium. There are two general principles with vhich
the rate should conform: (a) it should vary pari passu with the risk-free rate (b)
it should compensate the transmission company for: (i) the “risk of regulatory
opportunism”; (ii) the nondiversifiable risk imposed to the transmission company
by the price-fixing rule; (iii) and also add a liquidity premium. Legislation
presently discussed in congress, however, would grant a fixed 10% real rate to
the transmission company. Approximating the risk-free rate by the rate paid by
a 20-year b ond issued by the Central Bank (PRC) I use the model to estimate
the level of risk that justifies a rate of exactly 10%. Finally, I propose a method
to regulate transmission fees that would eliminate most revenue risk and would
avoid a need to fix a regulated rate.
Palavras-chave:
Risk premium, discount rate, volatility.
Números especiais
Prestes a ser publicado
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